Anthony, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXUS64 KEPZ 120602
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1202 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - More widespread, and organized thunderstorms are expected
   tomorrow, starting in the higher terrain, and spreading north
   to south into the lowland deserts in the evening. These storms
   will bring strong wind gusts, and despite recent rainfall, more
   blowing dust.

 - An overall uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected through
   the week, with the usual monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall,
   gusty winds, and localized blowing dust.

 - With the return of moisture, temperatures will drop back
   towards mid-July normals by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Relatively isolated convection today, where there were storms,
there were impacts. Heavy rainfall over the Uvas Valley from
training thunderstorms, gusty winds producing blowing dust between
Las Cruces and Deming, virga bomb downbursts in the lower valley,
and one very impressive storm just west of Van Horn to cap it off.

The storms over Uvas Valley today, and weaker convection around El
Paso, formed along a surface trough extending south from a surface
low over central New Mexico this afternoon. This low will weaken
as it drifts south tonight, but nevertheless the pressure gradient
looks to tighten up to its south, mainly near the international
border, partially due to high pressure developing in the wake of
convection over central Chihuahua.

Winds at 850 mb look to ramp up to around 40 knots along a low
level jet extending from south of the Gila and into southern
Hudspeth County. This will result in low level wind shear
initially, then as winds shift from the SW to WSW, strong
downslope wind gusts look to develop east of the Franklin
Mountains, and possibly as far north as the Organs. Winds should
become noticeably gusty after about 2 AM, but will peak roughly
between 5 AM and 8 AM. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible in
parts of NE El Paso, and up to around Chaparral. Gusts to 45 mph
look more likely by the time you get to WSMR Main Post, then drop
off dramatically north of there, due to the location of the
surface low and stronger winds aloft. Went with a Wind Advisory
for the wee hours in NE El Paso, and had to include the entire
western Tularosa Basin zone to capture Chaparral, despite the
dropoff in winds further north.

Saturday will be another active day. Taking the top-down approach,
strongly diffluent flow will be place across southern New Mexico
and Far West Texas through the afternoon. In the mid-levels, the
subtropical ridge will shift far to the west over southern
California. That sets us up for north to northwest midlevel flow,
which is always a notable pattern. Sure enough, a shortwave trough
will be grazing northern New Mexico in the afternoon, increasing
deep-layer shear to around 20-25 knots. Mid-level temperatures
will remain on the cooler side, -8 to -9C, which helped things out
today, but will spread further south Saturday. This will be
enough shear and upper level support for more organized
convection as it develops in the higher terrain. The combination
of more organized thunderstorms and low level dry air should allow
for merging of outflow cold pools, with thunderstorms and strong
outflow plowing south into the lowlands in the evening despite
lesser instability over the lowland deserts. The 00Z HRRR
continued to suggest very strong outflow wind potential, with a
broad area of gusts over 30 knots, a several pockets of 50 to 60
knot gusts. Its held this theme for several runs, though the
location of the strongest winds has been inconsistent, as you`d
expect with convection.

Mentioned SVR potential in the grids with damaging winds and
blowing dust. Had to completely overhaul the PoP grids as the
NBM/Forecast Builder was far too low compared even to the HREF.

Sunday looks to remain active, with improving low level moisture
east of the Divide, and continued northerly flow aloft. Mid level
temperatures climb slightly, but high aloft, a deeper trough and
strong PV anomaly drops south. The deeper moisture is a bit of a
concern for the Sacramento Mountains.

Monday into Tuesday, an inverted trough south of the Big Bend will
slowly drift in our direction, while low level SE flow boosts PWAT
values to around 1.20 inches. Some mid level drying/subsidence
ahead of the inverted trough may diminish precip chances over
eastern areas Monday, with the west staying more active, but it`s
difficult to hang your hat over such subtleties even on Day 3.

By mid-week the pattern looks unclear, and rather bizarre, with
a weak subtropical ridge over northern Arizona, and disorganized
low pressure areas aloft strung out across northern Mexico. PW
values will try to climb back up to around 1.50 inches. Overall,
precip chances look good, though there`s likely to be a dud day in
there somewhere if too much convective debris hangs around. Played
things close to the NBM, but capped off PoPs at 70 or 60 percent
in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

An area of low pressure will settle south over southern New
Mexico overnight, while high pressure south of the International
Border develops in the wake of convection over central Chihuahua.
This will strengthen the pressure gradient, and allow for a belt
of stronger low-level winds to develop over southern NM into Far
West Texas.

Initially, this will bring periods of LLWS to a few terminals
tonight, including El Paso. However, strong southeasterly winds
will begin to impact the surface after 08Z at ELP, and will
strengthen in the predawn hours as the wind direction veers from
SW to WSW, increasing the downslope effect off the Franklin
Mountains. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect for ELP from
08Z through 15Z.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain
Saturday afternoon, aided by convergence along the lingering
surface trough, while a shortwave trough higher aloft skirts
across northern New Mexico. Conditions look ideal for
thunderstorms with strong outflow winds to push into the lowland
deserts in the late afternoon and evening hours, potentially
impacting all TAF sites. The highest probability for thunder,
strong winds, and dust will be at DMN and LRU after 22Z.
Thunderstorms and outflow will likely reach ELP in some form,
most likely after 23 or 24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Breezy to windy conditions today will be on the decrease overnight
and especially by Saturday. Lighter winds, near average
temperatures and a chance for daily thunderstorms will be the
story for the next week. Best storm chances will be in the
mountains each day with the lowlands west of the Rio Grande having
greater coverage than eastern areas through Wed. Decreasing winds
will lower vent rates from generally very good Sat to fair to very
good Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 101  74  96 /  20  40  50  20
Sierra Blanca            67  93  64  88 /  40  30  40  40
Las Cruces               73  98  68  94 /  20  60  70  20
Alamogordo               69  97  66  92 /  10  30  40  30
Cloudcroft               52  74  50  70 /  10  50  60  70
Truth or Consequences    72  98  69  94 /  10  40  40  30
Silver City              65  91  62  91 /  10  60  50  70
Deming                   75 101  69  98 /  20  60  70  30
Lordsburg                71  98  68  97 /  10  50  50  50
West El Paso Metro       77  99  73  95 /  20  40  50  20
Dell City                72  95  68  91 /  20  30  50  30
Fort Hancock             76 100  72  96 /  40  20  50  40
Loma Linda               69  91  65  87 /  20  30  50  40
Fabens                   76 100  71  96 /  30  30  50  30
Santa Teresa             76  98  71  94 /  20  40  50  20
White Sands HQ           75  98  71  94 /  20  50  70  30
Jornada Range            69  98  68  94 /  10  60  70  40
Hatch                    71 101  69  97 /  20  70  70  30
Columbus                 78 101  71  97 /  20  30  50  20
Orogrande                70  95  68  91 /  10  40  60  30
Mayhill                  57  80  55  78 /  20  50  40  60
Mescalero                57  85  55  81 /  10  50  50  70
Timberon                 56  80  53  77 /  10  40  50  60
Winston                  60  91  57  88 /  10  70  40  50
Hillsboro                68  97  64  94 /  20  60  50  40
Spaceport                67  98  66  94 /  10  50  50  30
Lake Roberts             59  93  58  92 /  10  60  50  70
Hurley                   68  94  63  93 /  10  70  60  70
Cliff                    66  98  65  99 /  10  50  50  70
Mule Creek               65  94  63  95 /  10  50  50  50
Faywood                  67  93  64  91 /  20  70  70  60
Animas                   70  98  68  98 /  20  20  30  40
Hachita                  71  97  66  96 /  20  20  30  30
Antelope Wells           69  96  67  96 /  30  20  30  40
Cloverdale               64  91  64  91 /  40  30  30  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman