Anthony, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

024
FXUS64 KEPZ 050425
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1025 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1014 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

-  A strong high pressure feature will strengthen and remain
   centered over the region through at least the end of the week.
   This will keep the region generally dry, and hot.

-  Temperatures will be well above normal, even near record
   values,  a Heat Advisories in effect for the El Paso Metro
   area and lower Rio Grande Valley.

-  Rain chances will remain near zero for the most of the area through
   the week. Rain chances and thunderstorm development will
   improve slightly for the mountain areas in the latter part of
   the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1014 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Our Borderland forecast will be set by the dominant high pressure
feature which has built over the region, by it`s strength, and by
any subtle movements it makes over time. Currently, this huge
dome of high pressure stretches from the eastern Pacific, off the
western Baja coast, to eastern Oklahoma/Kansas. We happen to be
directly under then center of this pressure system. This has
eradicated most of the previous week`s/month`s monsoon moisture,
and replaced it with very dry air. In addition, the subsident
effects of a high pressure at 595-600DM is making for some of the
hottest temperatures of the spring/summer. We expect the high to
further strengthen over the next 48-72 hrs, meaning we could see
our temperatures creep upward still. Already, triple-digit
temperatures are common across the lowlands, but afternoon max
temperatures will likely climb further for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Relief from these hot conditions will come slow, and it will be
only minimal. Models show most of our lowland locations at or
above 100 degrees through the upcoming weekend.

Moving on, to the subject of moisture, rain, and storms. Those will
be few and far between, for at least the next two afternoons, and
the uptick in rain/storms will be low to come also. Monday was
likely the driest the region will be, in terms of dewpoints and
PWAT, with both elements making very slight day-to-day gains going
forward. However, we are so dry, it will take a lot of gains to
make an appreciable difference, and this should mean several days
of gains before we start to see any storms in most areas. We are
likely to get enough moisture increase for storms over the Gila,
as early as WED/THU, and then the Sacs THU/FRI, but the lowlands
should be generally dry, and storm-free until we get to the
weekend. Any storms over area mountains will likely produce
little rain, but a lot of outflow winds, which could race into the
lowlands, and pick up dust. So we will have to be mindful of that
later in the week.

Bottom line: High pressure will keep the region hot and dry.  Plenty
of sunshine and a few clouds. Winds mostly light and variable.
Temperatures quite hot through the workweek, with only slight
cooling for the weekend. Generally storm/rainfree days through the
work week, with the exception of the Gila area mountains, then some
increasing moisture, as the upper high shift NW to allow for a
return of storms for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

VFR conditions through the period at all terminals. High pressure
has pushed out the monsoon moisture, and brought in substantially
drier air over all terminals. No storms, few to no clouds, and
lightish winds (05-12kts) though the entire period. Winds will
favor an overnight northerly component, but be quite light. Wind
directions will shift to a southerly component tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1014 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A huge dome of high pressure is parked over the region, and it is
strengthening. This means a break in the 2025 monsoon season, with a
return of late Spring-like conditions, of extreme heat, and
significant drying. Temperatures will be well above normal, and
near record, with triple-digit highs across the lowlands.
Dewpoints and precipitable water values will be quite lower than
normal for early August. This means poor nighttime RH recoveries,
and afternoon RH dropping into the teens and single-digits. We
will also see a lack of significant clouds, rain, and storms for
much of the remainder of the work week. Moisture will lurk on the
perimeter of the high, with only the Gila high country seeing any
real chances for any pcpn/storms for Tue and Wed. Some increasing
moisture does spin clockwise out of the Gila, toward the SACs late
week, to give the Lincoln some rain/storm chances. The lowlands
will likely stay dry until the weekend. Any storms that do form
mid and late week, will be high based, with potential for strong
and erratic outflow winds, and dry lightning.

For the weekend, and into next week, the upper high does look to
shift a bit to the NW. This will allow for a minimal drop in
temperatures, and some additional gains in moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  74 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            99  67 100  69 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              100  69 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              101  69 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               78  55  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    98  69 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              93  65  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  103  66 106  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                99  68 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      101  75 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               102  69 103  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            104  74 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               95  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  102  71 104  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            101  71 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          101  73 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           100  68 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   102  67 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                102  71 104  72 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                99  68 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  89  59  91  61 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                89  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 88  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  93  58  94  61 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro                99  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                98  66 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             94  58  96  61 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   95  64  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   100  65 103  68 /   0   0  10   0
Mule Creek               96  64  98  66 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  95  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   99  69 103  71 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  98  67 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           98  68 101  69 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               94  67  97  70 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Northern Dona Ana
     County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird